Wikinews interviews Scott Lucas, Eyal Zisser, Majid Rafizadeh about risks of US military intervention in Syria

September 8, 2013

The United States Barack Obama announced last Saturday he was seeking Congressional authorisation for military intervention in Syria.

Looking for more-qualified input, Wikinews interviewed: professor Scott Lucas, an expert in American Studies, from the UK's University of Birmingham; the President of the on the Middle East, ; and, professor Eyal Zisser, a Syrian expert, from.

Discussing the risks involved with US military intervention in Syria, Wikinews posed a range of questions to these experts on the region's political climate.

Is it possible for the US to take military action to deter further use of chemical weapons without getting dragged into the ?
 * Prof. Scott Lucas: The US is already involved in the civil war &mdash; the question is to what extent.
 * The US has given political support to the opposition and insurgency since late 2011, and from summer 2012, it has pursued covert support to the opposition fighters.
 * However, the Obama Administration has been hesitant about overt support for insurgents throughout the conflict, and that has affected co-ordination of covert efforts. In June, the Administration finally said it would provide overt military assistance, but then pulled back and failed to deliver any public aid.
 * Had it not been for the August, 21 chemical weapons attack, that position would have persisted.
 * Majid Rafizadeh: It depends on the scope of the military operation. If United States conducts limited military operation, as the adminstration argues, and if US only targets some of the Syrian government's military installments, it is less likely that United States will be drawn into the Syria's civil war. It would be a political suicide for Syria, Iran or Hezbollah to respond.
 * On the other hand, if Assad observes that the balance of power is tilting against him inside the country, he might use chemical weapons in the future despite US limited strikes.
 * Prof. Eyal Zisser: Yes, it[sic] the attack is limited. And If the Americans only use missiles. They can cause severe damage, but leave Assad in his palace, and not being dragged into the civil war.



Will military intervention from the US affect long term relations between the United States and Russia?
 * SL: Of course, significant military intervention by Washington will affect relations between the US and Russia, but the long-term effect cannot be predicted.
 * It is dependent on Russia's reaction &mdash; so far, Moscow has been able to pressure the US into caution, but a decision for intervention by the US might call Russia's bluff, so to speak, and force some caution by the Russians. Already, Moscow has said it will not join a fight against any US military action.
 * And, of course, the long-term relationship is dependent on the political and military success of any US intervention.
 * MR: Military intervention, in the classic sense of putting troops on the ground, will definitely affect US-Russian long term political relationships. It might heighten the diplomatic tensions.  However, the limited military operation is less likely [to] change US-Russian long term economic, geopolitical, and political relationships.
 * EZ: No. They need each other in many other places of the world. Russia knows that the US is a super power and will not be interested in a real conflict with Washington.

The British Parliament voted against military intervention in Syria, do you think this has affected their relations with the United States?
 * SL: No &mdash; had the Obama Administration been united and decisive for intervention, there might have been some effect. But the Obama Administration's divisions mean its first priority is getting some coherence in Washington, rather than blaming London.
 * MR: I don't think so. I believe that [the] UK has been [the] staunchest ally of the United States for decades. One instance of opposing parliamentary vote will not have impact on US-UK relations.
 * EZ: Maybe. But Britain is not an important power any more, so the affect will be only in the symbolic field.

Russian President Vladimir Putin has said Russia could back Syrian intervention if there was conclusive proof of regime guilt. What sort of evidence would be needed and can this level of assurance be given?
 * SL: This is not a scientific question &mdash; we already have extensive evidence establishing the near-certainty of major regime attacks with chemical weapons on 7 towns on August 21.
 * Putin's statement was a political move: it ostensibly re-confirmed the Russian opposition to US intervention while giving Moscow a way to step back if the UN inspectors return a damning report.
 * MR: It is difficult, if not impossible, to provide Moscow with the evidence that they are looking for. In order to provide that specific information several criterions should  be met. First of all, the soil of the location where the alleged chemical weapons are used, should immediately be examined after the incident. The Syrian government has not allowed immediate access to these places and usually reports come out days after. Second, and more fundamentally, a concrete and observable evidence is needed for Russia showing that Assad's government has used it as opposed to the rebels.
 * EZ: No the Russians are not after the truth but after their interests even if Assad admits that he used such weapon the Russians will be against any intervention.



Would US military intervention on Syria be a violation of International law?
 * SL: This is a grey area, especially as there will not be an endorsement by the United Nations Security Council. Supporters of the action say it can be justified under the recent doctrine of humanitarian intervention, but that is more a political rather than legal judgement.
 * MR: Legally speaking, it is [in] violation of [the] United Nations Charter. According to [the], use of force is permitted only in case of self-defense or UNSC's [United Nations Security Council] approval. Neither of these two cases apply for US use of military force against Syria. However, this does not mean that our current international law is devoid of any shortcomings. The International system has some shortcomings because of the structure of the UNSC, where one member can veto a resolution and block actions.
 * EZ: Technically &mdash; yes because they did not get an approval from the UN.

Does the United States seem to be wanting to engage in regime change in Syria as opposed to preventing further chemical attacks?
 * SL: No, the Obama Administration has been uncertain about &mdash; and many of its members opposed to &mdash; regime change, and that is still the situation. The military, in particular, is opposed to significant, long-term intervention because of its concerns over a fragmented, diverse opposition and what happens if Assad falls.
 * MR: If there was an efficient alternative to Assad, US would have seen the regime change to its political benefits and interests. However, United States does not seem to have articulated any precise agenda towards Syria yet. The policy is more " Wait and See" policy; observing and reacting as things unfold in Syria and the region.
 * EZ: No Obama does not want it, he finds himself being dragged into a war he has no interest in.